What the prediction markets believe — on the questions miners actually live by: the Bitcoin price, the Fed, and the rules being written about our power bills.
Kalshi: “Bitcoin price at the end of 2026” — where BTC sits on January 1, 2027. Bitcoin changed hands near $59,600 overnight. Here is where the market says it ends the year:
| BTC price on Jan 1, 2027 | Market probability | |
|---|---|---|
| Under $20,000 | 0.5% | |
| $20,000 – $25,000 | 0.2% | |
| $25,000 – $30,000 | 0.4% | |
| $30,000 – $35,000 | 0.5% | |
| $35,000 – $40,000 | 0.9% | |
| $40,000 – $45,000 | 1.2% | |
| $45,000 – $50,000 | 2.6% | |
| $50,000 – $55,000 | 4.5% | |
| $55,000 – $60,000 | 8.8% | |
| $60,000 – $65,000 | 17.0% | |
| $65,000 – $70,000 | 21.2% | |
| $70,000 – $75,000 | 16.5% | |
| $75,000 – $80,000 | 8.6% | |
| $80,000 – $85,000 | 5.8% | |
| $85,000 – $90,000 | 3.0% | |
| $90,000 – $95,000 | 2.2% | |
| $95,000 – $100,000 | 1.1% | |
| $100,000 – $125,000 | 2.7% | |
| $125,000 – $150,000 | 0.5% | |
| $150,000 and above | 0.5% |
Full distribution, all 28 Kalshi brackets, grouped here at the tails. Probabilities are the midpoint of each contract's bid and ask; because of bid/ask spreads the column adds to about 99%, not exactly 100%. The same board prices Bitcoin above $250,000 by January 1 at 1% or less — offered at a penny, with no bids.
Kalshi: “Fed decision in Dec 2026?” — what the Federal Reserve does at its December 9 meeting. This is the number that sets power-contract and financing costs for every mining operation in America. The market is not expecting relief:
Outcome probabilities are midpoints of Kalshi bid/ask and sum to slightly over 100% because of spreads. Read it plainly: traders with money down expect borrowing to get more expensive in December, not less.
Kalshi: “Will data center power-cost standards become law before Jan 1, 2027?” To Washington, a Bitcoin mine is a data center. This market prices whether Congress puts power-cost rules on facilities like ours within weeks:
Texas Bitcoin reserve: Texas HB 815 — the bill that would let every Texas city and county invest up to $10 million in Bitcoin — was filed November 9, 2026. Kalshi lists a Texas BTC reserve market series, but no contract was open when we checked, so there is no honest number to print. When one opens, it will appear on this board. We do not publish odds we could not pull.
Gemini Predictions: we also track Gemini's prediction markets. Their public data feed was not reachable from our servers at this snapshot, so today's board is Kalshi-only rather than padded with numbers we could not verify.